There is therefore a path out of Russia’s isolation after Putin departs. and European leaders could make clear to Russia-both the public and especially elites-that the West ultimately sees Russia as part of Europe. Thus, as this issue brief argues, building momentum for change inside Russia also requires signaling from the West that it is both open to future reengagement with a post-Putin Russia and that it believes such an alternative future is possible. However, while Russia can end the war on its own, reconciling with the West and reversing Russia’s isolation is ultimately up to the West. There is a clear and more rational path for Moscow: end the war, reconcile with the West, and reverse Russia’s economic, diplomatic, and cultural isolation. However, the West has not yet offered an alternative vision for Russia’s post-Putin future. Ukraine and the West have created the conditions for the first, Putin’s loss of legitimacy. This will likely be driven by two interlocking factors: the Putin regime’s loss of legitimacy (with the public, the security services, elites, and the state) and the existence of a clear alternative to Russia’s current path. Thus, for a transition to occur there will need to be a strong demand for change. This is because regime supporters and war hawks will, most likely, vigorously seek to keep Putin in power, prop up the regime, and stay the course. Such a pessimistic outlook might seem sober-but, as this issue brief argues, it could very well be wrong. In fact, there is a growing assumption that what follows his reign could very well be worse. The potential for Ukrainian military success to cause regime instability in Moscow has generated understandable nervousness among many Western governments about what could follow Putin. It concludes, contrary to much of the prevailing view, that if Putin leaves power, it will likely be due to a reaction against the war and Putin’s hardline approach. This issue brief assesses the potential for the war to prompt a transition of power in Russia, as well as the possible ramifications of this. But although the West has a post-victory strategy for Ukraine, namely a framework for reconstruction and a path toward EU and NATO membership, it lacks a vision for Russia in the aftermath of a Ukrainian victory. While it is hard to see how Putin departs, it is also hard to see how his regime survives such a situation. A failed war, combined with economic deprivation and loss of prestige, makes regime collapse a possible outcome. However, if its overall efforts prove successful and Ukraine can end the conflict on its own terms, Putin’s regime could fall. The West does not have a strategy of regime change in Russia. The Western objectives in Ukraine, despite claims otherwise, are relatively straightforward: to weaken Russia, preserve Ukrainian democracy, and enable Ukraine to reclaim its territory. The West, led by the United States, is supporting Ukraine with modern advanced Western weaponry, massive financial aid, a global diplomatic campaign to isolate Russia, and an unprecedented sanctions effort designed to strangle the Russian economy. If Ukraine continues to reverse Russia’s post-February 2022 territorial gains, it may make Putin’s position untenable in Moscow. Keeping hold of territory in Ukraine is not existential for Russia-but it may be increasingly existential to the survival of the Putin regime. There is now talk in Moscow of the war being existential. Desperate to salvage the situation in Ukraine, he has mobilized hundreds of thousand Russian men to replace the estimated 100,000 soldiers already killed or wounded in the war. He is now asking more of the public than ever before. Russia is perhaps now more isolated and less respected than at any other time during Putin’s 23-year reign. The Kremlin prioritized modernizing its military for more than two decades, and despite substantial investment and presidential attention, the Russian military’s performance has been shambolic. It threatens to undermine Putin’s very legitimacy. The war has pulled back the curtain on the Kremlin and revealed an incompetent, corrupt, and poorly run state. Russia’s invasion has been more than a military debacle. Russia’s continued military failures there, combined with high casualties and worsening economic deprivation, could put his regime at risk. The war in Ukraine is sapping the strength and resilience of Vladimir Putin’s regime.
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